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Brighton Look Good Value Away at Cardiff

Brighton head to Cardiff in the Premier League this weekend, looking to maintain their recent good run of form. The Seagulls come here on the back of three wins from their last four games, a run which has seen them move away from the relegation zone. They are up in 12th position, and have an eight point cushion over Huddersfield, who are currently the highest of the three clubs in the relegation zone.

Cardiff appear as though they are still struggling to adapt to life in the Premier League, and so far they have won just one game from their opening eleven. They also have two draws, to give them a total of five points which puts them in 19th position, although they are only above the bottom club Fulham on goal difference. No one was expecting Cardiff to do too well this season, they were expected to battle it out in the relegation zone, but their fans will want to see more in the coming weeks, otherwise survival could look a long way away.

Going into the game, both teams will fancy their chances here. Brighton will be looking at this game and seeing a struggling Cardiff team who are there for the taking right now, and will be looking to get three points. However, Cardiff will also see this game as one they can win, it is teams like Brighton they have to get points from, especially at home, if they are to survive this season.

We may only be eleven games into the season, but these feel like an important three points for both teams. A win for Cardiff could see them move out of the relegation zone while another win for Brighton would really put them ahead and out of the way, which is exactly what they will be aiming for this season.

Is Cardiff’s Defensive Setup Good Enough to Avoid Relegation?

If there is one criticism of Cardiff so far, it is that they are playing too defensive. They are trying their best to limit the chances they are conceeding but that is proving very hard for them. This kind of set up worked well in the Championship, but the Premier League is a completely different level.

What Cardiff did in the Championship was try to limit teams to a small number of chances each game, and hope to score at the other end. That was fine when they were facing strikers who weren’t clinical enough to be in the Premier League, but now they are facing a much better quality of player, and ones who only need one chance to score. While Cardiff may limit a team to two or three chances in a game, they are now up against strikers who can score off just one chance, so Cardiff are leaking a lot more goals than they would like to.

To survive in the Premier League this season, I think Cardiff are going to have to change their approach. They need to attack more and create more chances of their own, without worrying too much about what the other team are doing and limiting their chances. No matter how Cardiff play this season, they will concede goals, but with just nine on the board themselves from 11 games, scoring is more of a concern right now for The Bluebirds.

How Many Points Needed for Premier League Survival?

The magical number when talking about Premier League survival has always been 40 points. This is more often than not enough to keep teams in the division, and if they reach that target, clubs should stay up. Last season, Southampton had just 36 points on the board, but they managed to stay up, so 40 was comfortably enough.

Looking at the league table so far, and the number of teams who are likely to be involved in the relegation battle I think it could take even less to stay up this season. I would not be surprised to see a team finish in the low 30s and still survive this season.

As it stands now, six points from 11 games is enough to be outside of the relegation zone. If you times that by four, that gives 24 points from 44 games. With the Premier League season being 38 games, that means that at the current pace, any one who gets to 24 points would likely be safe. Those at the bottom will improve as the season goes on, and when points are needed towards the end of the season, teams will pick them up. However, even taking into account those at the bottom are likely to reach 30 points at the most, meaning anything in the low 30s would be enough for survival.

I expect teams will still talk about the magical 40 number, and no one will aim for 30 points this season. Having said that, if a team gets 30 points, then in my opinion they will have a good chance of surviving, while low 30s looks almost sure to be enough in what looks like being a big battle at the bottom of the Premier League.

Cardiff vs Brighton Betting Tips

Both teams will go into this game seeing it as a good opportunity to pick up what would be a valuable three points. Cardiff will need to start targeting games like this to get out of the relegation zone, while Brighton know beating teams below them will give them the opportunity to maintain their position in the standings and keep clear of trouble.

Despite struggling so far this season, Cardiff are favourites to win this game, which is not something I agree with. We are yet to see much from Cardiff to show they are a team worth backing, and goal scoring still remains a huge problem for them. Of their nine goals, four of them came in the one win they have recorded this season, meaning they have just five in their ten other games. That is certainly not enough to survive in the Premier League, and if they want to stay up they have to play a different style of football, that helps them to create more chances.

Brighton can take advantage of that, and pick up what would be their fourth win in the last five games here. They look good value, and certainly shouldn’t be priced so big so I am more than happy to back Brighton to win the lunchtime kick off away in Wales.